Showing posts with label opinion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label opinion. Show all posts

Monday 11 September 2017

Do You Know That Nigeria Remains The Best Place To Invest Anywhere In The World? — Chairman, BUA Group

  • Nigeria’s cement sub-sector is sustaining the giant strides it started about a decade ago when some indigenous manufacturers began to take possession of the public sector institutions championing the industry, while moving away from importation to local manufacturing and even more. Here, Abdulsamad Rabiu, Chairman, BUA Group, one of the indigenous organizations championing the new direction, spoke on the milestones and more.

Abdulsamad Rabiu

What has been achieved in Nigeria’s cement industry so far 

The journey of the Nigerian integrated cement manufacturing, which took a new course just over a decade ago, has seen Nigeria move from a nation with under 3 million tonnes of production capacity to a country that will have some 45 million tons of cement manufacturing capacity by next year – implying about 15 fold increase in capacities. This important feat has not only made Nigeria self sufficient in cement production but also a net exporter of the commodity.

Some of the real impact on the economy 


The cement sub-sector today represents over 90% of the Nigerian mining sector and employs some 30,000 p eople directly and over 2 million people indirectly. It also saves the Nigerian economy some 2billion dollars in foreign exchange.


BUA Cement’s latest achievement in the industry 


Today’s event shall witness the commissioning of one of the best cement plants anywhere in the world. It is engineered to be the most environmentally friendly cement plant in Africa with the most advanced duct emission systems.

Our technology has the latest filtration with capacity of less than 10 milligram per normal cubic meter. We use natural gas, which is a very clean energy for both our kiln as well as the power plant in addition to having a very green environment. Supplied by the FL Smidth of Denmark, one of the best cement equipment suppliers in the world and powered by Siemens turbines, the plant that has the capacity to produce about 9,000 tons of cement per day or 230,000 per month. CBMI of China is currently building the second Obu cement line on an EPC contract with technology from the best European suppliers. 

The construction of the first line, which commenced commercial production early last year, came with a lot of challenges. BUA had to build a 31 Kilometre 16 inch gas pipeline that is capable of transporting over 100 mscf of gas, which if it was meant for power generation alone, it could transport gas that would generate over 500 mega watts of electricity. 

The company also invested millions of dollars into purchasing an over 50-mega watts power plant for the facility. We had 2-kilometer horizontal water boreholes that are supplying water to plant at a rate of about 50-cubit meter per hour.

BUA Group’s place in the decade old private sector led cement revolution in Nigeria 


BUA entered into the Nigerian Cement industry in 2008 with the acquisition of BUA Cement 1, a 2-million toner floating cement terminal that was able to process bulk cement into bags on a vessel. It was the first time any company brought that to Nigeria. 

The trajectory of the Group’s cement operation saw it acquire a controlling stake in the publicly listed Cement Company of Northern Nigeria PLC or CCNN, as well as in Edo Cement Company Limited in the same year. 

The company went on to invest in the construction of a greenfield 3 million tonnes plant in Obu. The success and impressive efficiency of the Obu cement plant in its first year of operation, which was over 90% in an industry where efficiency averaged 60%, led BUA to commence the construction of a second cement plant line of 3 million tons. 

Similarly, BUA has started the construction of another greenfield cement plant in Sokoto State with an annual capacity of 1.5 million tons at a cost of over $300 million which, hopefully, will be commissioned early next year.


Real impact of BUA Group’s role in Nigeria’s economy 


It is worth mentioning that BUA’s investment in the cement line in Sokoto is the single largest private sector led investment in the North-Western part of Nigeria. 

This is particularly important because Sokoto cement is the largest employer of Labour in Sokoto State after the State Government, and the 60-year-old company founded by the Sardauna of Sokoto needed that investment to keep those jobs. 

Additionally, our investments in the two cement lines in Edo State represent the largest non-oil and gas related investment in the whole of the South-Southern region of Nigeria. With these, BUA would have invested over $2 billion dollars in the Nigerian cement industry with capacities in excess of over eight million tons per annum within the course of a decade. 

These kinds of investment in important sectors of the economy are not only necessary, they are critical.

Where the roles of private sector and those of government intersect 


In order to reverse our import dependency and diversify the economy, large corporations have to engage in game-changing investment in sectors such as agriculture, mining, and infrastructure, while the Government at all levels ensures an enabling environment for the investments to thrive. 

It is our firm belief that the responsibility to diversify the economy cannot be left only with the government; the private sector must be in the driver’s seat with the support of the government. 

This is needed to create jobs that would curtail idleness within our youths that make them to engage in vices as well as have a more balanced source of revenue as government and businesses.

Other areas of BUA Group’s role in the Nigerian economy 


We have intensified our investments in some of the most critical sectors of the economy. In agriculture for example, we are creating an ecosystem where we are participating in the businesses of inputs, production, processing and distribution of some agricultural commodities. 

In this space, we have acquired machineries to establish the first limestone granulation plant in Nigeria for fertilizer production. It is hard to believe that Nigeria currently struggles with producing quality limestone granules used as filler for fertilizer blending. 

The granulation plant will be integrated to a one million tons fertilizer blending plant, which we have also acquired to be sited in Edo State. On completion, it will be the largest fertilizer blending plant in Nigeria. 

To mirror the trajectory of the cement sector and further diversify our economy, we are ambitiously developing our sugar estate in Lafiagi, Kwara State. The $300 million investment will enable us produce over 1.8 million tons of  sugarcane; about 250,000 tons of white refined sugar, 20 million litres of ethanol and generate some 35 MW of electricity. 

Our sugar refineries in Lagos and Port Harcourt are being structured to better serve the local markets as well as competitively target the markets of ECOWAS member states, officially making Nigeria a sugar-exporting nation. We are also up-scaling our rice milling facilities to reach one million tonnes capacity in the next few years. 

This is being done by upgrading our rice mills in Kano as well as establishing new ones. And to feed the mills, we are developing massive commercial rice production in Niger and Jigawa States in addition to the specially designed rice out-grower scheme that we have piloted with 2,000 farmers in Kano State.

The Nigerian investment and business environment 

The reality is that Nigeria remains the best place to invest, anywhere in the world. With the size of our market and the abundance of our resources, nowhere else comes close to us. 

For us to unlock our true potential and make even more significant economic progress, the private sector needs to closely engage with Governments on policies and innovative arrangements, such as PPP, in order to invest in sectors that have the potential to make the greatest impact on the economy and our people. One of such sectors is the textile sector. 

Nigeria currently imports $4 billion worth of textile annually at the expense of millions of jobs at home. To reverse this trend, BUA Group is partnering with the Federal Government and the Katsina State Government to develop a 500ha Textile and Garment cluster that will possess all the necessary infrastructure and incentives needed for a smooth and efficient textile and garment businesses operation. 

The cluster has the potential to bring in over $5 billion worth of investments, creation of 25,000 direct jobs, FOREX earnings of over $2 billion and FOREX savings of over $4 billion.

Lessons from the success of the Nigerian cement industry 

The success of the cement industry has shown that with the right Government policy and encouragement, it is actually possible to reverse our import dependence for many commodities, and by so doing, generate jobs and create wealth for our teaming population and preserve our scarce foreign exchange. 

The Nigerian cement industry went from a few hundred million dollars to almost $20 billion in enterprise value in just over a decade and there is still room to do much more. 

We still need more plants to produce more cement,  increase our per capita consumption, and bring down our housing and infrastructure deficit.



Read More »

Saturday 11 March 2017

The Hard Facts To Rescue The Nigerian Economy By Chukwuma Charles Soludo

  • Introduction: Let me thank the leadership of Vanguard Newspapers for inviting me to lead the discussion on “The Hard Facts to Rescue the Nigerian Economy.” As I reviewed three of my recent interventions on the economy (“Buhari vs. Jonathan: Beyond the Elections” (January 2015); “Can a new Buharinomics Save Nigeria?” (November 2015); and “A Fragile State with a Failing Economy: Making Progressive Change work for Nigeria” (August 2016)) as well as the plethora of expert opinions, conference communique, lectures, memos and blueprints that adorn our media on a daily basis, I am not really sure what else to say. Implicit in the Vanguard choice of topic is that Nigerian economy is in dire need of a rescue, and many would agree. Let me frame the context of this rescue agenda with quotes from two voices that must know what they are talking about. On the state of the nation, the distinguished Elder statesman, Prof. Ango Abdullahi sums it this way ( February 12th 2017)

  • “Nigeria’s project is not working, after 50 to 60 years the Nigerian project is not working despite everything we went through, constitutional conferences, the country is at a standstill……It is unfortunate we are still where we were more than 50 years after independence and have not been able to move away from where our colonial masters left us”.

Soludo Charles

On the performance of the government that Nigerians have entrusted to rescue the situation, one of the shining lights of that ‘Team Nigeria’ has the following to say (Memo to the President which is circulating: I have received it from three persons ---not from El-Rufai):

These inherited problems were aggravated by the continuing slide in crude oil prices and the renewed insurgency in the Niger Delta that reduced oil production by more than 50 percent! …. This, however, is merely the symptom and simplest explanation of our current economic problems. However, we cannot, after more than a year in office continue to rely only on this “blame them” explanation. We were elected precisely because Nigerians knew that the previous administration was mismanaging resources and engaged in unprecedented waste and corruption. We must, therefore, identify the roots of our enduring economic under-performance as a nation, and present a medium-term national plan and strategy to turn things around… We have no such clear roadmap at the moment…. In my honest opinion, we have made this situation worse by failing to be proactive in taking some political, economic and governance decisions promptly. In very blunt terms, Mr. President, our APC administration has not only failed to manage expectations of a populace that expected overnight ‘change’ but has failed to deliver even mundane matters of governance outside of our successes in fighting BH insurgency and corruption. Overall, the feeling even among our supporters today is that the APC government is not doing well……(Gov Nasir El-Rufai: September 2016).

The key point of Ango Abdullahi is that Nigeria seems to have been moving in circles since independence, while el-Rufai, in a rare patriotic duty, makes a frank wake up call to the President and the APC.

But there is a piece of good news. Finally, the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) now has an “Economic Recovery and Growth Plan” (ERGP) which is supposed to be its blueprint for rescuing the economy. I commend the effort. At least we now have something to frame policy discussion, and how we wish that this lecture and discussions are centered around an evaluation of the new Plan: Is it a plan for transition to post-primary commodity economy or more of the same?  In other words, is this plan the response to both Ango Abdullahi and El-Rufai as well as millions of other patriotic Nigerians who have called for a sense of direction to the ship of state? That will be for another day!

II: The FGN Response and Report Card So far?

To be fair, it bears repeating that the FGN inherited a bad economy. By May 2015, the FGN was already borrowing to pay salaries, and about 30 states had challenges meeting their salary obligations. The previous government had an unprecedented rate of debt accumulation even at a time of unprecedented oil boom, and was even depleting our foreign reserves instead of more than doubling or tripling what it met (it could have more than doubled the reserves if it grew it by just 50% of the rate of growth for 2004-2008); etc. Oil prices were falling, and disruptions of output in the Niger Delta made matters worse. Of course, insecurity, especially in the North East, was very high, and corruption was pervasive. The situation called for a state of emergency, with a progressive rescue team that could run at the speed of 1000 kilometers per hour to halt the drift and lay the foundation for a post-oil economy.

Most Nigerians acknowledge the FGN’s efforts in fighting insurgency (Boko Haram) and corruption. On the economy, it has implemented the Treasury single account (TSA) although we believe that it could have been implemented better without squeezing the economy of the much-needed liquidity at a time of recession; payroll audit and discovering thousands of ‘ghost workers’ (every government discovers these ghost workers); and a mishmash of command and control measures, demand management and exchange rate controls – all of which have wreaked havoc on business confidence and private investment, massive capital flight and driven the macro economy into recession.

Most macro variables have worsened significantly: inflation (from 9% to 19%); exchange rate (from 197/215 to 305/465); unemployment (from 7.5% to 14%); GDP growth (from 2% to -1.56%); market capitalization of NSE (from N11.658trn or $54.2 billion at parallel market rate to N8.658trn or $18.6 at parallel market rate--- with daily trading down from around N11billion to N1 billion or less, i.e., about $2 million); poverty escalating; and youth agitations increasing. Business confidence remains very low at (-29) while competitiveness index remains a low 3.39 points and ranked 124th in the world. Foreign reserves remain depleted and the current account balance remains negative. Savings- investment rates are very low and Sovereign credit ratings worsened. Nigerian workers have suffered a double whammy: average nominal wages are declining while real wages dramatically shrunk (with high inflationary pressures). Asset prices have collapsed, and household wealth has shrunk. Paradoxically, Nigeria’s rank on the Corruption Perceptions Index remains unchanged at 136th position out of about 176 countries, while its ranking on the Fragile States Index has worsened from the 17th and 14th positions in 2014 and 2015 respectively to the 13th position in 2016 (down from 54th position in 2005). Many economic agents have lost count of how many exchange rates operate at the same time. The overall direction of macroeconomic policy was largely more of the same. On fiscal policy, FGN continued to spend over 100% of its revenue on recurrent expenditure (as done by the previous government) while borrowing ALL its capital expenditure. There remained half-hearted commitment to deregulation of petroleum pricing as well as privatization of refineries. The budgeting framework remained largely the same, with all the institutionalized inefficiencies (recall the ’budget padding’ scandals). Monetary and exchange rate policies were in their own world.

Let me make a point that most analysts miss namely, that in domestic currency terms, the economy is in a recession, but that in US dollar terms, the economy has suffered massive compression. Depending on the exchange rate used, the size of Nigeria’s GDP has shrunk from about US$575 billion when the current government took over to anything ranging from US$354 to US$232, and Nigeria has again lost the first and second positions in Africa’s GDP ranking. At the interbank rate of about N375 per dollar, the GDP is probably around US$288 billion but if we use the parallel market rate of about N465, then we are closer to US$232 billion. Think about this: in the previous 16 years, Nigeria’s GDP more than doubled in US dollar terms. In less than two years, the current government has managed to reduce the size of GDP in dollar terms to about 50% of what it met.  We will get out of the recession any moment from now--- with oil price and output rising—but it will be a miracle if the government can return the GDP in US dollar terms back to the level it met it even by 2023!

I must congratulate the government for plugging some of the loopholes and stopping some of the bleedings. The challenge, however, is that much of these have focused on the MICRO: while trying to tie down the chicken, we are either stopping the cows from coming in or chasing them away. For example, while we are fixated with stopping the import of toothpicks and stopping the petty traders from taking dollar cash away, we have created havoc that have shut down many factories and with low capacity utilization, as well as ignited massive capital flight and halted capital inflows--- with the attendant impoverishment of millions, escalating unemployment and inflation, etc. Put simply; we have missed the MACRO picture! While we are winning selected micro battles, we are losing the war on the MACRO economy. In November 2015, I argued that the policy direction of government was inconsistent with its stated objectives of economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction, and that if it insisted on controlling price (exchange rate and capital controls) the way it was doing, the real economy (quantities) would adjust/contract with vengeance. I further warned that incomplete or dysfunctional adjustment would be costly. In a matter of months, Nigerian economy was plunged into an avoidable recession. Naturally, most people never admit their errors—but rather point to other “external factors.” The last PDP government was blaming “external shocks” while the current APC government blames not only the fall in oil price/output but also the past PDP government. No one admits to policy errors, and that is the problem.

Have we learnt any lessons from experience so far? We ought to, but I am not sure we did. One lesson we ought to have learnt is that we sought to re-write macroeconomics for Nigeria but sadly, the hapless millions of Nigerians have been the unfortunate Guinea pigs. A lesson is that the claim to Nigeria’s economic exceptionalism is false. Nigerians, like economic agents everywhere, respond to incentives and sanctions. Furthermore, the pseudo-intellectualism framed around infantile but insular nationalism does not offer a practical template for prosperity in the 21st century. It merely massages our emotions, offering no pragmatic action plan.  Another lesson is that Nigeria has refused to learn from the history of boom and bust cycles in oil/commodity prices. The current government is responding exactly like some did in the past: treating oil price/quantity fall as temporary while treating a rise as permanent/normal. It is merely embarking on short-term demand management—just as “coping strategy” while waiting for oil price/quantity to return to “normal, ” and we get back to business as usual. Every government (except those forced by external agencies such as the World Bank/IMF to undertake painful adjustments) have always skirted around the margins when faced with negative shocks and passed on the hard decisions to the next government. Every government since the 1970s has lamented a lack of diversification of export and fiscal revenues, but there has been no coherent strategy for a post-oil economy. Every government blames previous ones for “doing nothing” and promises to be the one that will “for the first time in Nigeria’s history” get the job done. The cycle continues!

III: Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP): Is it the Plan for Transition to a Post-Oil Economy that Nigeria has been waiting for?

First, we must commend the FGN for this major effort.  I will undertake a detailed evaluation of the Plan in the future. To motivate discussions here, let me raise just two or three points.

Whose Plan is the ERGP?

This might sound trite, but that is the issue. Ownership will determine whether the Plan is just a public relations document or will be implemented. I have seen a Plan where the President, in his handwriting constituted members of the drafting committee, commented on every page of the draft and even wrote some pages himself; spent 90 minutes every week at a meeting with heads of all economic MDAs to coordinate implementation, etc. There was the National Reform Council that included leaders of the National Assembly, leaders of the ruling party, etc. That Plan exceeded most of its targets and secured debt relief for Nigeria. On the other hand, I have seen several glossy Plans at state and federal levels prepared by bureaucrats and launched with fanfare by Presidents and governors and the rest is history.  More fundamentally, to what extent is the ERGP consistent with the APC Manifesto? The APC manifesto promised “a conscious plan for a post-oil economy”:

As a change Agent, APC intends to cleanse our closet to halt the dangerous drift of Nigeria to a failed state; with a conscious plan for post-oil-economy in Nigeria.  To achieve this laudable program APC government shall restructure the country, devolve power to the units, with the best practices of federalism and eliminate unintended paralysis of the center (APC Manifesto).

All previous Plans (see all the national development plans since the 1970s, SAP, NEEDS, Vision 2020, etc.) have all promised to diversify away from oil. How is ERGP different? (I read the Section on “ERGP’s New Approach,” and I am not too sure of the claims). Where is the new structure of the country that will deliver the new Plan? Where are the best practices of federalism that will eliminate the paralysis of the center--- and alter the incentive system and drive competition in a post-oil world? How will you transit to the post-oil economy when the Plan is designed to intensify dependence on it and other primary commodities---agriculture and solid minerals? Or are we trying to repeat the same thing over and over and hoping for a different outcome?

B) Macroeconomic Framework as a Wish or More of the Same?

Some of the figures in the real sector and fiscal accounts as presented in the Plan are surprising. Except I am missing something, the numbers largely do not add up. Also, they are certainly inconsistent with the objective of moving to a new economy. Given the LEVEL of prices and GDP at market prices, the level of revenue/expenditure (about 3% of nominal GDP) or even declining capital expenditure (perhaps around 0.5% of nominal GDP), constitute a drop in the ocean. When the planners, therefore, state that “growth will be driven by fiscal stimulus…”, I wonder what exactly they mean by fiscal stimulus--- with a budget of 3 - 4% of GDP? When you think of these figures in real terms, and for an anemic economy, there could be cause for concern.  The private sector ought to more than double its expenditure/investment to fill the slack. How will this happen with low domestic savings and reluctant foreign investors?  Needless to say, that the envisaged 15 million new jobs to be created during the Plan period is a nice wish. The growth vis-à-vis job accounting does not support such a wish. Up until 2018 (the last effective fiscal year for the current government), the Plan envisages to continue the practice of the last government of borrowing to finance recurrent expenditure. The deficit will continue to exceed the capital budget, meaning that every penny of capital expenditure will continue to be borrowed as done by the last government. So, what has changed? We do not see a clear program of action on what to do with the over 520 federal agencies and parastatals.

More fundamentally, the Plan talks with tongue in cheek about “improved implementation of a flexible foreign exchange rate regime to support growth.” On external balance, it talks about “expenditure switching policies to promote exports….”. Interestingly, there are no projections for the trajectory of exchange rate or foreign reserves. This is the elephant in the room. Let me say that in the context of any serious Transition Plan to a post-oil economy, the exchange rate regime, including a target path for a competitive real effective exchange rate (REER) will be decisive. It is not the silver bullet but like the advert for the American Express, ‘you don’t leave home without it.' Attracting the badly needed foreign savings/investment as well as diversifying into competitive export-oriented industrialization will not happen without a competitive REER. You cannot accumulate foreign reserves on a sustained basis without it. The rapid accumulation of forex reserves and massive FDI and portfolio inflows in the period 2004- 2008 was not an accident. Take out the excess crude savings from our reserves, and one would see that the CBN’s component of the reserves grew very rapidly during this period ostensibly because we deliberately targeted to ensure that Nigeria avoided the Dutch disease syndrome (over-valuation of the real effective exchange rate) when oil price was rising. The IMF complained that the Naira was undervalued and pressured us to sell down reserves to mop up excess liquidity. We refused, and convinced them of the logic of our actions.  If we had not maintained an undervalued REER, the nominal exchange rate would have been around N70 -N80 but reserves at no more than US$20 billion (instead of $54 billion) at the start of the global financial crisis in 2008. The story of the Nigerian economy would have been a totally different one, and perhaps by now, the Naira exchange rate would have far exceeded N1000 per dollar. This is a subject for another day. My key point here is that the macroeconomic framework will remain dicey until we remove the huge uncertainty and opacity surrounding our exchange regime.

The Plan as packaged is a good effort, but regarding our expectations as a Plan for transition to a post-oil economy (as promised by the APC), it is a missed opportunity!  It is a generic plan, and in several aspects resembles the NEEDS document (designed for a different era) with some tinkering. It is a plan to consume the oil and commodity rents and not one to restructure to replace them. With rising oil price and output, the economy will recover and grow but in spite of the plan and not because of it. It will take the next oil/commodity shock for us to lament that we should have had a Plan to transit from oil/commodity dependence. I am willing to bet that not much will happen regarding the structure of the economy or the structure of fiscal and export revenues at the end of the plan. The Plan’s claim that by 2020 Nigeria would have made significant progress towards achieving structural change with a more diversified and inclusive economy is also a nice wish. If only we know precisely how to measure if we made “significant progress”! The next Plan will probably start by stating that this Plan failed to restructure and diversify the economy or achieve an inclusive economy. Every Plan, however, is a life document. Perhaps before it goes into full implementation, there is a need for Extended ERGP or ERGP Plus Plus!

Conclusion: There is no doubt that the current FGN and most of the state governments mean well for Nigeria. However, the road to hell is always filled with good intentions. We have wasted too much time trying to reinvent the wheel and Nigerians are paying for it. It is never late to make a fresh and strong beginning. Our development path bypassed competitive industrialization which is sorely needed in the transition to a post-oil economy as well as to provide jobs for the millions of youths. But crafting and implementing a Plan to steer a totally new direction in a society already numbed by easy life from oil rents is not a tea party. Furthermore, politics is around the corner, and easy populism will stand in the way of the hard but painful choices that must be made for a new economy. Politics of survival will dictate business as usual or mere tinkering at the margins as we have seen so far. What Nigeria needs at this time is statesmanship politics: men and women ready to pay a huge political price to fundamentally lay a new foundation.
Read More »

Wednesday 15 February 2017

You Need To Know How 'Ego' And Conspiracy Theories ‎Led To Boko Haram Killings And Destructions By Kashim Shettima

  • Apart from the immeasurable national impact he made within just 198 days (less than seven months) in office, what is decidedly affirmed to be the late General Murtala Muhammed's most famous speech set the stage for Africa's epochal confrontation with colonial, racist and settler regimes in Angola, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, Rhodesia (renamed Zimbabwe), and South Africa.

Borno-Governor-Shettima-The-Trent
General Murtala Muhammed of blessed memory, further stated that "Africa is capable of resolving her own problems without any presumptuous lessons in ideological dangers, which more often than not, have no relevance to the problems at hand...". 41 years after General Murtala expressed this bold vision, we must ask ourselves, is it that Africa has now retrogressed below the threshold of positive consciousness bequeathed to us to this moment when "extra-continental powers" like ISIS or Al-Qaeda are directing Boko Haram to turn its lethal weapons on social progress, with poor people as the undeniable victims of their insurgency?

For a succession of Nigerian leaders going back to the first republic under Prime Minister Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, through General Yakubu Gowon and General Olusegun Obasanjo who succeeded General Murtala Muhammed, the willingness to deploy resources to secure the basic rights to life and happiness, not just in Nigeria but all over Africa, was deeply rooted in the psyche of the true leaders of our people. For again, in that his famous speech, General Murtala Muhammed, minced no words in stating why it was necessary to fight evil wherever it occurred in Africa: quote, "when I contemplate the evils of apartheid, my heart bleeds and I am sure the heart of every true-blooded African bleeds."  End of quote.

Most researchers believe that the cradle of apartheid in South Africa was in 1948 and lasted till 1994 when Africa's legend, Nelson Mandela of the ANC had to be released from prison to assume the democratic leadership of the country. But in the age or era of apartheid, a total of 21,000 persons were murdered according to reports published by the Human Rights Committee of South Africa which conducted an extensive investigation into the atrocities of the Boers against Africans. At the time General Murtala's heart bled over atrocities of apartheid, the number of murders was less than 7,000 in the run-up to 1976 through the 1980s.

The majority of the assassinations and killings totaling 14,000, actually took place between 1990 and 1994.

Your Excellencies, Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, how much more would General Murtala's heart have bled today if he were around to know, that while it took South Africa's apartheid 46 years to take 21,000 lives, it took Boko Haram only 7 years to cause the murders of 100,000 lives of innocent people, largely women, children and old people in Nigeria?

If General Murtala Muhammed were alive today, imagine how his heart would have bled most profusely! Certainly, his fate would have been no better than Egypt's General Gamel Abdel Nasser's in September 1970, when his heart failed over a lingering worry that fellow Arabs, Jordanians, and Palestinians, were killing each other. I cannot resist such a comparison, for it stands to be argued if General Murtala Muhammed was not to Africa, what Gamel Abdel Nasser was to Arabia. It took a heart failure for Gamal Abdel Nasser, whereas a black African consciously planned and carried out the assassination of Africa's martyr, General Murtala Muhammed! May his soul rest in peace! Amen.

Ladies and Gentlemen, immersed as I often find myself in thoughts over the greatness in General Murtala Muhammed, I was thoroughly bemused when Aisha Muhammed-Oyebode, replied my SMS of acceptance to this event, by saying the Murtala Muhammed Foundation was so honored. I laughed at her humility as I considered myself to be the one who's truly honored. What an honor to be a keynote speaker at the memorial of one of Africa's liberators, a man so immeasurably endowed with the eternal greatness that contemporary African History credits him with hastening the collapse of apartheid South Africa and its surrogate regimes in Southern Africa. His name was one of the words that rolled out from the lips of Nelson Mandela when he regained his freedom. Africa remains grateful that in its hour of great need, it had General Murtala Muhammed. Again, may his soul rest in peace!

Understandably, from July 1975 to date, a lot of Nigerians have more admiration and respect, indeed nostalgia, for the days of General Murtala, than they have for some of us holding public offices today and in recent times. 'Fellow Nigerians' as Murtala often addressed citizens, would normally stand up for leaders who truly served them. I must express my profound appreciation to the Board and management of Murtala Muhammed Foundation for giving me the platform to narrate the story of Borno's struggle with the evil that has continually wreaked death and destruction in our state.

I came into office in the midst of the Boko Haram crisis in 2011. As at that time, the insurgents had begun serial assassinations and planting of IEDs mainly in Maiduguri metropolis, which was, and now even more so, the most populated part of the State.

Last month, my predecessor Governor Ali Modu Sheriff issued a political statement. In it, he implied that as at the time he handed over to me in 2011, Boko Haram had asserted territorial control and carried out its atrocities within Maiduguri only. According to him, Boko Haram wasn't in control of local government areas. His statement, designed as it were to aim a cheap political shot, only stood down both the facts and internal dynamics of the Boko Haram terror strategy.

The thesis, yet to be punctured, is that the spread of Boko Haram was a consequence of creating and nurturing the enabling environment that started it in the first place, and that consciously carved out niches for it in governance and society.

Two years before I came into office, specifically, in July, 2009 when the Boko Haram launched its first (major) concurrent attacks in Maiduguri, its cells carried out similar attacks in Damasak, headquarters of Mobbar Local Government Area in Borno State. Cells, then yet to become active, existed alongside visible followers in other local government areas.

In fact, the Boko Haram which spread to Bauchi (Bauchi State) and Potiskum (Yobe State) from Borno State attacked targets in these states within the same July, 2009. Boko Haram was by this time everywhere in Borno State.  I have restrained myself from blaming the previous Governor but the fact of the matter is that Governor Ali Modu Sheriff allowed his ego to override his actions by failing to amicably settle the violent disagreements that ensued between a group of armed forces and followers of the Boko Haram sect in 2009, who at that time were known as Yusufiyya. Between 2008 and 2009, the late Mohammed Yusuf was a regular critique of Sheriff’s administration in some of his sermons, I do not know the basis of their problems. Then, in June, 2009, there were disagreements between Yusuf's followers and an anti-robbery squad codenamed, 'Operation Flush'.

The disagreements were over the use of crash helmets in Maiduguri which resulted in one of the armed personnel in Operation Flush firing at 17 followers of the sect. I think the security agent said they attempted disarming him or so. It is true that the Boko Haram members had clear disregard for the policy on motorcycle safety (anti-crash) helmet and didn't wear it. But after a serious incident involving armed forces and a radical Islamic group, a Governor in his normal senses would at least  visit victims of the shooting, even settle their medical bills to lay foundation for peaceful resolution and also set up a panel of Inquiry over the shooting of 17 radical sect members. We all saw how Governor Nasiru El-Rufai quickly set up a Judicial Commission of Inquiry over the Shiites crisis with the Army in Zaria, and a white paper has since been issued. But in the case of the June, 2009  Boko Haram crisis with Operation Flush in Maiduguri, then Governor of Borno State, Ali Modu Sheriff mismanaged the crisis by blatantly ignoring the entire incident.

The Governor was in Maiduguri when the incident happened but he neither set up at least a Commission of Inquiry after the incident nor did he visit those shot and hospitalized while he also didn't send anyone and didn't settle medical bills of victims.

Sheriff acted as if nothing happened. At the end, he played into the hands of the insurgents. It is possible that some of the insurgents wanted a Jihad to declare their kind of Islamic State and Sheriff's inactions and negligent disposition gave Mohammed Yusuf an opening to mobilize his followers and declare a Jihad.

Radical groups normally seek basis to justify actions. And so,  Mohammed Yusuf told his followers that the silence of the Borno Government was an indication that the attack on his followers was orchestrated by the Government and he threatened a retaliation.

About a month after his threat, we had the first major attack in July, 2009. It was after that attack that Sheriff set up one committee to look into the whole incident, long after substantial damage had been done.

In 2010, the more vicious Abubakar Shekau emerged on the scene as a more offensive and daring catalyst. He threatened reprisals which have brought us to where we are today. As indicated earlier, the transition from Yusufiyya to Boko Haram under Shekau, dispatch of outposts outside Maiduguri in Borno State and to Yobe and Bauchi, all planned and coordinated from headquarters in Borno, had become contrived fait accompli under Governor Ali Modu Sheriff.

We all know for instance, that President Barack Obama opposed the 2002 invasion of Iraq. He was a state Senator then and took part in campaigns against that invasion. It was President Bush that dragged the United States to the war in Iraq but then it was President Obama's administration that suffered the consequence of that war in Iraq and as we have seen, the Democrats lost at the November,  2016 US elections.

In our case, we inherited in 2011 a violent group which melted into the public, disguised, silently mobilizing its adherents and deploying its fighters all over the nucleus and contiguous states in the typical fashion of a homegrown insurgency with a broader political objective.

The Boko Haram insurgency has led to deaths of almost 100,000 persons going by the estimates of our community leaders over the years. Two million, one hundred and fourteen thousand (2,114,000) persons have become internally displaced as at December of 2016 with five hundred and thirty-seven thousand, eight hundred and fifteen (537,815) in separate camps; 158,201 are at official camps that consist of 6 centres with 2 transit camps at Muna and Custom House both in Maiduguri. There are 379,614 IDP'S at 15 satellite camps comprising of Ngala, Monguno, Bama, Banki, Pulka, Gwoza, Sabon Gari and other locations in the state. 73,404 persons were forced to become refugees in neighbouring countries with Niger having 11,402 and Cameroon having 62,002. We have an official record of 52,311 orphans who are separated and unaccompanied. We have 54,911 widows who have lost their husbands to the insurgency, and about 9,012 have returned to various communities of Ngala, Monguno, Damboa, Gwoza, and Dikwa.

Based on the post-insurgency Recovery and Peace Building Assessment (RPBA) Report on the Northeast which was jointly validated by the World Bank, the European Union, the Presidency and the 6 States of the Northeast, the Boko Haram has inflicted damages to the tune of 9 billion US Dollars in the region. Of this amount, the destructions in Borno State amounts to 6 billion US Dollars and they are supported by grim statistics.  A total of 956,453 private houses representing 30 % of the total number of houses in Borno were destroyed across the 27 local government areas in the State. A total of 665 municipal buildings comprising state ministries, LGA buildings, prisons, police stations and power distribution offices were destroyed in Borno. 5,335 classrooms and other school buildings were destroyed in 512 primary schools, 38 secondary schools and two tertiary institutions in the State. 201 health centres, mostly primary healthcare clinics, dispensaries and some General Hospitals were all destroyed.

 The insurgents also destroyed 726 power substations and distribution lines just like they destroyed 1,630 water sources including motorized boreholes, hand pumps, solar powered wells and facilities for piped water schemes. Across 16 local government areas of the State, the insurgents bombed parks, gardens, orchards, game reserves, Green Wall projects and poisoned ponds, Rivers, Lakes and stole over 500,000 cattle.  All these were in addition to setting ablaze markets, large-scale farms and hundreds of trucks that evacuated agricultural products for export to neighboring countries.

Today, hundreds of well-known rich farmers and transporters, among many others of the mercantile class, have become thoroughly pauperised and rendered dependent on food aid. Thousands of children have suffered various degrees of acute malnutrition either due to long stay in captivity and entrapment or due to complex problems associated with the management of IDPs. These include poor humanitarian relief delivery method (initially experienced), and cases of diversion of food by officials and volunteers. Painfully and paradoxically there are also  cases of some of the IDPs cashing out their food by selling at below market prices to heartless profiteers.

Those rent seeking IDPs would then return to their camps wearing faces of neglect, hunger and hopelessness. This is the desperation borne out of supposed self-help that sometimes aggravates the scarcity of basic essentials of life among the IDPs.

Your Excellencies, Ladies and gentlemen, of all the impacts of the Boko Haram menace including the hugely expensive and time-consuming reconstruction, resettlement and rehabilitation process, as well as supporting security agencies in the discharge of their counter-insurgency duties, I dare say that what has been the worst headache is managing the humongous humanitarian crisis, particularly managing both formal and informal IDP camps.

On the one hand, there are IDPs who accept to be registered and admitted into camps. On the other hand, there are those who have set up their own camps themselves. They have defied all entreaties to relocate to the formal camps. In both camps, there are a crisis of children and adults living in constant need of food, medications and habitable environment. International humanitarian agencies and NGOs have been of tremendous assistance and so are their local counterparts. The problem, however, is that there are also the so-called NGOs who are mainly into humanitarian aid to divert donor funds. What is most worrisome in all of these, is that because the people of Borno State are beneficiaries of interventions, our Government is easily accused of not being appreciative when we ask questions. It is true that most humanitarian agencies announce the amount of resources they require or have spent, but certainly, the Borno State Government is mostly not involved in their procurements. Nor in the withheld "distribution" of undelivered humanitarian relief supplies.
The Murtala Muhammed Foundation have asked me to speak about my experiences and lessons for our diverse country, and this brings me to CONSPIRACY THEORIES AND THE PRAXIS OF INACTION.

For me, the most critical experience and lesson I have had and learned from the last five years has been the power of conspiracy theories and how they can strongly undermine the fight against insecurity and the management of the humanitarian crisis. 

In the first place, the Boko Haram insurgency grew from strength to strength because of an initial conspiracy theory which began after the 2011 general elections.

Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, after the Boko Haram carried out its first suicide attack on the headquarters of the Nigerian Police Force in June 2011 and a later attack on the UN building in August, both in Abuja, a conspiracy theory emerged immediately alleging that the Boko Haram was set up by Muslim-majority northern leaders to target Christians and make Nigeria ungovernable for His Excellency, President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. Given the fact that both attacks took place in June and August, which were within three months after President Jonathan was sworn-in, this conspiracy hypothesis immediately assumed a life of its own.

Those who believed the theory did not care to recall that the first major attacks by Boko Haram in Borno and Bauchi states which took place in June 2009, had occurred under the late President Umaru Musa Yar'adua, a Northern Muslim from Katsina State.

The proponents of this ridiculous conspiracy theory didn't care to recall that a Northern Muslim from Kaduna State was actually the Director-General of President Jonathan's 2011 elections campaign. Surprisingly, when it suited their narrow political agenda, even pro-Jonathan northerners propagated that the insurgency reflected the collective will of the Northern opposition to undermine the federal government.

What that meant in effect, was that the theory changed from all Northerners using Boko Haram to undermine Jonathan into a narrower theory that northerners in the opposition were using Boko Haram to destabilize Jonathan's administration.

The end result was an alibi for the state not to admit its failure to rout the Boko Haram at the earliest opportunity. It appeared the President himself initially believed the conspiracy theory. For instance, when he visited Borno State on Thursday, 13th of March, 2013, President Jonathan requested to meet differently with officials of the Borno State Chapters of the Christian Association of Nigeria and the Jama'atul Nasril Islam. The President neither invited nor stopped me from participating but I understood he wanted to meet each group without me.

Both meetings were arranged for the President without me knowing the agenda. To his credit, I must acknowledge, President Jonathan was actually on a fact-finding mission because the following day, during his courtesy call at the Government House in Maiduguri, he said that officials of the Christian Association in Borno State had told him that Boko Haram was not targeting only churches and Christians but rather, had attacked many Mosques and killed many Muslims.

President Jonathan went further to say that from his findings, the Boko Haram had actually attacked more of majority Muslim communities in the State.

The President's revelation was an indication that he didn't understand the crisis before March 2013. Whether his initial lack of understanding of the situation caused his ineffective response to the crisis before 2013, is a matter for conjecture. But Borno people consigned to the receiving end of poor policy articulation and intervention, were simply victims of the resultant inaction or paralysis. And they paid with their lives and property, for which the Nigerian Constitution in its fundamental derivative principles, compels the state to use its exclusive possession of the organized means of violence to guarantee.


Distinguished guests, ladies, and gentlemen, what got me very much upset was the Chibok schoolgirls' abduction of April 14, 2014, and the conspiracy theory that followed it. That abduction gave me the impression that the correct lessons were not learnt at the Presidency despite President Jonathan's personal findings in Borno.

For instance, rather than the Federal and State Government combining strength towards rescue efforts, a conspiracy theory was immediately created that denied that an abduction of the poor schoolgirls was real. The theory presumed that key politicians in the opposition APC, cooked up the kidnapping story mainly to embarrass President Jonathan and the PDP. Days later, when the Bring Back Our Girls campaigns began, the theory was changed from cooked abduction story to saying yes, there was an abduction, but the abduction was designed and masterminded by the opposition led by our administration.

Meanwhile, the failure by the state to perform its constitutional duty in rescuing the schoolgirls and bringing back the Sambisa forest into the Federal Republic of Nigeria, by whatever means necessary, were glossed over as an embarrassed nation sought refuge in yet another conspiracy to undermine a Christian and Southern President. As God would ordain it, President Goodluck Jonathan, in May 2014, constituted an investigative panel to gather facts regarding the abduction. The panel had credible persons from all segments including representatives of the majority Christian community in Chibok, serving and retired personnel of the armed forces, local and foreign-based women and civil rights activists, journalists and some persons believed to be very close to both President Jonathan and his wife.

The panel met all stakeholders from heads of security establishments, the leadership of the West African Examination Council in Borno State, and the panel was also in Chibok to meet agonizing parents and community members.

After an exhaustive investigation, the panel submitted its report to President Jonathan. The Presidency didn't disclose the content of the report and didn't point any more accusing fingers at Borno State Government. I remember that the Thisday Newspapers in its edition of Friday, 24th of June, 2014, claimed to have obtained a copy of the report and said the panel's report absolved the Borno State Government of any complicity and in fact sympathized with us over some findings the committee made.

Ladies and gentlemen, while you may assume these experiences should be enough to make our dear country focus less on conspiracy theories, recent developments do not quite show that we are learning from the dangers of national paralysis and state inaction inherent in conspiracy theories.

For instance, months after the 2015 elections and the inauguration of President Muhammadu Buhari, another conspiracy theory was cooked up following resumed attacks by militants in the Niger Delta. There were some northerners who began to create a conspiracy theory that the militants were regrouped and being funded by those who lost out in the 2015 elections, in order to destabilize President Buhari’s administration. There were those who even believed and supported the theory in the south, and they went as far as posting through the online and social media, that it was the turn of the Niger Delta to exact revenge on how Boko Haram was used to destabilize President Jonathan's administration.

Again, the main issue, namely the inability of the state to guarantee production of oil and secure vital strategic investments in the Niger Delta, being the only variable outside the price of oil in the international markets within the ability of the Nigerian state to influence for good, was side-tracked.

Interestingly, even though it is crystal clear that conspiracy theories do no one any good, they seem to be stubbornly attractive in Nigeria because even as we speak, there have been series of social media messages in recent weeks, alleging that Fulani’s were being deployed to churches to cause mayhem. The whole thing seems to be a sort of effort to link a Presidency led by a Fulani man with the activities of murderous criminals, some or most of whom may be Fulani’s by ethnicity.  Conspiracy theories sometimes begin by a simple message, and they grow wild. I have met someone who told me that President Buhari didn't visit Kaduna because those killed were mostly Christians and I had to remind the person that the same Buhari hasn't been to Borno State, the epicenter of the Boko Haram. I am not saying it was right or wrong that the President visited neither Kaduna nor Borno State; my concern is our quick judgment to whip up ethnic and religious sentiments. The oxygen and carbon dioxide which most conspiracy theories require to breathe in and out are religious and ethnic sentiments.

Distinguished guests, ladies, and gentlemen, we must as Nigerians try to suppress our bias by working hard to get facts on all issues, otherwise, we will continue to fall victims of conspiracy theories. We must recognize that for every conspiracy theory, there is a group that stands to gain politically. As Nigerians, we should regularly free our minds and ask ourselves, who stands to gain on any conspiracy theory we come across. We must also not, anymore, allow figments of crazy imaginations as excuses for the state to fail to protect life and property.

We must stop condoning our collective callous attitude that predisposes us to blaming victims for their losses in lives and property, the protection of which is the main reason for the existence of our national government. For as you can now see, no issue has gained notoriety for conspiracy theory as much as the Boko Haram insurgency.

What makes the insurgency particularly worrisome is that anyone can easily move from being a victim to becoming a suspect. Boko Haram insurgents do not have particular looks unless those of them who openly professed their evil ideology and are known by locals. No matter how highly or lowly placed one might be, it is possible to innocently associate with someone secretly working or supporting the insurgents. The military have had instances where some soldiers were suspected of working for insurgents; there were also instances where some volunteers were identified and picked up, just as we had had cases were some officials of government at various levels were suspected of having some links with the insurgents.

The important take is that in all extenuating cases, whether among the military, volunteers or inside Governments and their agencies, the total number of those found to have questions to answer for collaborating with the enemy is neither significant enough to draw systematic conclusions, nor widespread enough to cast any doubt that the collaborative efforts of our military, volunteers, whole communities and governments at the three tiers, will give our country and her heroic armed forces a decisive military victory over the mortal enemy of our national wellbeing and sovereign aspirations.


OUR PROGNOSIS
Though the victory of our armed forces and intelligence services over the Boko Haram is a foregone eventuality, I have deliberately delayed talking about what we are doing to proffer enduring solutions, so that the organizers would not give me a bill for self-adulation. I will not do justice to this gathering if I do not state our proven capacity and commitment to make our state much better than we have met it.
Ladies and gentlemen, quality and affordable education is for me, the number one road map to addressing the Boko Haram insurgency. One of Nelson Mandela's most memorable quotes says "Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use for to change the world". I am by no means trying to pass the buck, but it is evident that the abject neglect which education suffered and the levity with which it was treated especially by the immediate past administration in our State did a great deal to fuel the embers of the Boko Haram insurgency. There are fighters who joined the Boko Haram out of hopelessness. When people have little or nothing positive to expect in their tomorrow, they mostly don't see reasons to preserve themselves for tomorrow.

A hopeless person in a state of lack doesn't mind everyone dying with him. We are therefore investing heavily in education. Our plan is to pass a legislation that will make education free and compulsory but we have to first put the infrastructures and teachers in place and this is precisely what we are doing. Virtually all our schools are being rebuilt in Borno. We are investing 20 billion Naira in building brand new mega schools designed to provide quality boarding education for over 20,000 orphans created by the Boko Haram insurgency and other vices in Borno. If we don't take care of these orphans and other vulnerable children and give them hope, they may grow up and take care of us in a manner in which Boko Haram has dealt with their deceased parents and guardians. In the social realm, we plan to pair the orphans with widows of the insurgency through an arrangement which will involve evaluating both the kids and the widows, giving the widows means of livelihood that creates accommodation for them and the orphans they are encouraged to adopt. We want a suitable widow with say one child, to be a foster mother for two orphans, while we bring experts and humanitarian partners to supervise the envisaged foster parenting and education.  Of course, as you are all aware, we have refused to submit to the dictates of the Boko Haram terrorists as regards their resolve to eliminate education in the Borno and elsewhere, and we will never submit to them by the grace of God.

We have even moved to kick off our own Borno State University.  There is no better way of consigning the Boko Haram ideology to the dustbin of history, than to ramp up the value system that they have set about to stamp out of existence.  We have invested heavily in agriculture and we intend to use our agricultural war chess to reposition the economy of Borno and create massive job opportunities for our people. We are currently building ten agriculture-based factories opposite the newly established Borno State University, and they will serve as drivers to add value to farm produce, processing, and packaging in order to create jobs. We are also continually rebuilding, restructuring our destroyed and devastated communities, and resettling and rehabilitating our long suffering and beleaguered but highly resilient people.

A deep sense of collective frustration, deprivation and disillusionment produced by poor and irresponsive governance triggered the radicalization of otherwise innocent, responsible and law-abiding citizens that are the monstrous Boko Haram insurgents. Our firm resolve therefore, is to break this deadly link between violent extremism and extreme poverty and illiteracy through an aggressive policy of job creation especially through agriculture, reduction of inequalities, promoting education and building a just and inclusive society.

Perhaps this is not the forum to bore you with our modest efforts. Telling you everything may take too much of your day. We are gathered in the Murtala Muhammed spirit, and once you are in that spirit, you would want to ask yourself how much committed you have been to the selfless discharge of your duties.  It is my wish and prayers that we get leaders who would surpass the positive effects Gen. Murtala Muhammed made in our country in less than seven months. Until such a time when another of his kind leads our country, the late General Murtala Ramat Muhammed remains Nigeria's most treasured iconic leader of all times. And Like the Scottish essayist, Carlyle Thomas said,  "No great man lives in vain, for the history of the world is all about the history of great men." May Africa's martyr, General Murtala Ramat Muhammed's soul, rest in peace and continue to fire us up until the remnants of man's inhumanity to man, is brought to a terminal end in our country and continent. Amen.

Finally, finally, I would like to make it unequivocally clear that as a Muslim, Boko Haram does not represent me.

As Federica Mogherini rightly posited ‘’ Boko Haram are not a voice of Islam – they are an enemy of Islam. Just like the Lord’s Resistance Army has nothing to do with the Lord. Only with warlords, child slavery, and black magic’’.

The Quran is very clear on the requirements for being a Muslim and boko haram has negated every single criteria. The Boko Haram approach is based on killing, kidnapping, raping, forceful conversion of their captives into their believes that totally negates the teaching and practice of Islam that is anchored on respect and protection of sanctity of human lives and property. The Quran is clear that there is no compulsion or coercion in conversion for religion. Added to that, the Quran categorically states that 'if any Muslim kills any innocent soul, it is synonymous to killing the whole of humanity and that such killers will recompense in hell fire on the day of reckoning”. Hell fire is certainly the end of unrepentant Boko Haram fighters and those who support them.

I thank you for listening and I apologize for taking too much of your time.

Being text of the 2017 General Murtala Muhammed memorial lecture titled, 'MANAGING THE BOKO HARAM CRISIS IN BORNO STATE: Experiences & Lessons for a multi-party, multi-ethnic and multi-religious Nigeria' delivered by Borno State Governor, Kashim Shettima at the Shehu Musa Yar'adua Center in Abuja on Monday, February 13, 2017.

Read More »

Wednesday 26 October 2016

They Came, They Stole, But They Would Never Conquer By Samuel Adesanya

Buhari
Overtime, the Nigeria political and elitist communities have found fulfillment in squandering the limited resources, some to their private purses while most who claim to be “saints” splash the resources on issues of banalities yet come out to their ever-believing Nigeria people through the media to educate them on recession, put up some leadership campaigns ( #ChangeBeginsWithMe), set up a committee of their friends-in-government to discuss circuitous issues that would keep the masses at their mercy, they come in the guise of the discrepancies in the constitution as I have said earlier on this medium that the Nigeria criminal is a studious criminal who studies the constitution very well for its defects, non-provisional effects and discrepancies before committing crimes.

I have been passive on social justice for a while now due to the fact that we live in an ever-believing, non-litigious society where inhabitants are fatiloquent, they speak of fate at the slightest injustice.

God has allowed the fuel price to rise!

It was God’s plan that you will not be admitted into the university this year.

To someone who was sacked unjustly days before her wedding - God knows why it happened like that, it is for you not to be arrogant to your husband!

To that police officer who has been promoted but has not been paid his arrears for a year- God has plans for you, He wants you to spend the money very well during your retirement.

To those who could not buy foodstuff any longer due to the hike in price- God knows best! If you eat too much, you can contract diabetes.

If you venture into business and you become rich, you would contract the sickness of the rich - cancer. Some religious leaders who are leading a blind congregation when they themselves are blind would mount the pulpit with all egoistic attributes to pray that, should the fuel pump price rise to N1000 per litre, the member would be able to buy. At the call of the prayer, one would see all forms of acrobatic displays like a gymnast under the influence of steroids. What a gross benightedness! These energies should be channeled to revolt against the ruling class that suck with reckless abandon the milk and honey that should flow on the land. It is not just the problem of leadership, the bane lies with the followership.

This is a country where the chairman of an Okada Association owns and drives jeeps and the members keep paying "dues" to him. Those who in their “modesty and modalities” operate thrift/credit societies are usurious in a manner. Nigerians would be vassals to their fellow countrymen and suffer for a long time until social revolution breaks out.

I stumbled on the special interview Col. Abubakar Umar, the former Kaduna State Military governor. granted TELL on the 1st Jan. 1996. Until yesterday, I never knew a man like him exist(ed). This is a man whose activism is top- notch despite his military and elitist acquaintances. He prophesied all the happenings today, from deregulation to diversification of the petrodollar economy and so on. On the “midget” corruption then; he said this:

“But I understand they also know that there is a lot of talk about money being spent on areas that produce nothing. I think it is highly exaggerated. If you are looking for this money you better look at the accounts of the elite. Most of this money, I believe, is stashed outside. Not too much of this money has been spent on provisions of amenities in this country. So, when Shell is telling people that if we abandon (the LNG project), the common people are going to be affected, you find that it is largely the elite that will be affected. The common people are having a very raw deal. There is nothing as bad as you knowing that you are producing wealth and not seeing the evidence of that wealth.”

The news account of a Nigerian journalist I read sometime reinforce the truism that, “what goes around comes around”. The Nigerian journalist had migrated to the United States with his family through the Visa Lottery programme and had the privity of being at University College Hospital, Los Angeles (UCHLA) where Mariam Babangida had been admitted at the height of her health predicament.The journalist had revealed how Babangida had been prevented from entering the United States because of his annulment of the June 12, 1993 elections but had to be granted visa on compassionate grounds at the height of his wife’s health issues. He further revealed how disrespectfully the nurses and paramedics had treated Babangida, unaware of his presidential status. The journalist decided to intervene when it appeared the disrespectfulness and cold-treatment to Babangida was not going to stop. It was at that point that Babangida realized that the man sitting across from him at the reception of the Hospital building was a Nigerian. Babangida later came to sit next to him and thanked him. The journalist told him that he (Babangida) was part of the reasons he had migrated to the USA and that while as the Military Head of State, if he had revolutionized the Nigerian Health Sector, the best of Nigerian doctors would have been treating his ailing wife with all treatment befitting of a president. He said at that point Babangida became remorseful and apologized for all of his failings. Today, the same Babangida has been battling health issues.

What a people!

Nigeria is a very strong country, you don’t try the kind of money-laundering that goes on here in economies like Ghana’s and Kenya’s. These countries would run into unrepairable and insurmountable crises. We should not forget that at this moment, Buhari, the anti-corruption crusader, has just played on our intelligence with the change mantra. I just hope that by 2019 he does not say he failed to perform because Nigerians refused to change. It would be a battle of words between me and the old man. I and other well-meaning Nigerians worked assiduously with no incentivization; talking to people about Buhari on the premise of his integrity we read in history books. So, did we work for all these we are getting today?

Jonathan, we all understand was a president of circumstance. He came in when Nigerians needed just a president. His cluelessness might be pardoned and excused.

What do we then say of the man Buhari, who had longed for the Aso Villa seat for 12 years before the victory of 2015? Do we say he wasn’t prepared enough? Does that mean that for 12 years of his political struggle, he had no economic plans for Nigeria and Nigerians? I write with all gloominess of heart that this man has hijacked the Aso Villa on a revenge mission and has surrounded himself with his kinsmen as his soldiers; an undertone of nepotism but it is “defected” under sections 47 and 147 of the 1999 constitution: the Nigerian problem, legal reforms – the way out.

On assumption to the throne, he went after Dasuki but recently we heard of Dasuki’s re-appearing image in his cabinet – Abba Kyari, the chief of staff who is the dramatis personae on which the MTN fine scandal is centered. I have summoned all the watch-men in my area to come out with torches fully lit as we search for the change even in broad day light. It is unfortunate we live in a world full of deceit, who do we trust?

“Until a lecture theatre is built in Unilag or any other school and the name of the looter is printed on it like this – THIS LECTURE THEATRE WAS BUILT FROM THE LOOTS RECOVERED FROM ABACHA AND HEREBY COMMISSIONED FOR THE USE OF HUMANITY TO THE GLORY OF GOD AND THE SHAME OF THE FAMILY, I will never take the anti-corruption war serious,” a student activist protested.

I have decided to be mute on the sale of national assets because it did not start today. Privatization started as far back as 1988. Education as a national asset has been sold long ago, unity schools have been commercialized. We only centre our focus on the JV of NLNG and NNPC under discourse but I tell you the negotiation and the sale have been concluded long ago.  You don’t fight many enemies, many have advised, told them all that my rustication and the political victimization students and youth activists are facing is/was as a result of cycle/myriad of problems. For the purpose of record, I will say myrustication was as a result of victimization which came from an undemocratic body who could not tolerate students protesting, the protest was as a result of poor welfare conditions on campus, the poor welfarism came as a result of bad management and underfunding. Underfunding happens to be a product of austerity measures. Austerity measures were orchestrated by the mismanagement of the ruling class; it is therefore a cycle. There is this saying in Yoruba; “You do not leave a mad man with the corpse of his mother, he could eat it.” We would not leave this Buhari–led administration with the economy, we would keep the said “technocrats” (or Samsungcrats) on their toes till we get a revamp of this situation.

This is a solidarity call to all students and youths to unite and become formidable against the forces that be. We have the solutions with us. The country started folding up when the youths slept off. Not only did we sleep, but we also snored orchestratingly.

We must stand up to keep asking why and how our fathers have brought us here. Things must cease to continue like this, or else the national anthem will be remixed and the labor of our heroes past will be in vain very shortly.

Samuel Adesanya writes from Lagos.
Read More »